#1 - PAYMENTS
Are we near the beginning, middle or end of the multi-trillion dollar transition from cash to non cash payments that propelled outsized returns in Visa and Mastercard?
Visa, Mastercard and American Express have been putting up huge numbers:
- Visa share price is up 21.9% p.a. over the last 15-years
- Mastercard share price is up 25.5% p.a. over the last 15-years
- American Express share price is up 16.3% p.a. over the last 15-years
The returns have been powered by the transition from cash to non cash payments. The rise of debit and credit card transactions to replace physical cash and cheques. Global transaction volume on digital payment networks grew 9.1% p.a. from $7.7 trillion in 2008 to $28.5 trillion in 2023.
For the investor, this begs one question: how long can these growth rates last?
To help investors form their own opinion on this question, we created a model to forecast the 15-year growth rate in digital payment transaction volume.
Here’s a link to the model in Google Sheets:
