#3 - ELECTRIC VEHICLES
From a standing start in 2010 electric vehicles now account for 18% of all cars sold worldwide thanks to the likes of Tesla and BYD, but will they ever be 100%?
In 13-years electric cars went from under 10,000 units sold to over 10 million:
- Battery electric vehicles from 7,000 units in 2010 to 9.5 million units in 2023
- Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles from 450 units in 2010 to 4.3 million units in 2023
- Fuel cell electric vehicles from 29 units in 2010 to 8,900 units in 2023
Within a mature automobile market, EVs have been taking share from conventional gas powered equivalents, but there is still doubt they will overtake internal combustion engines as the dominant power unit for private use vehicles.
Automakers and investors have keen interest in how this market might develop and the natural ceiling on electric car market share.
To help executives and investors form their own opinion on this question, we created a model to forecast the growth rate in electric cars out to 2040.
Here’s a link to the model in Google Sheets:
